On Decline and Renewal

The Fourth Sunday after Easter

O ALMIGHTY God, who alone canst order the unruly wills and affections of sinful men: Grant unto thy people, that they may love the thing which thou commandest, and desire that which thou dost promise; that so, among the sundry and manifold changes of the world, our hearts may surely there be fixed, where true joys are to be found; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

Anglicanism in the West is in decline. Where growth exists, it is often from immigrants coming from the global south where Anglicanism is still growing. Everyone has an opinion on what the cause of decline is and what the solution is. Ultimately, demographic decline can be summed up quite simply: the Church is failing to build up new disciples of Christ. Simple! The solution is simple, too: revival! Both simple, both true. How to achieve that, though, beyond simply prayer and miraculous intervention?

In 2010, a demographic report was released that showed an in-depth look into the trends that everyone had been witnessing in Canada for decades. The report showed a gradual but steady decline in membership, which was even starker when looking at attendance, since the mid-1960s. In the immediate post-War years there was an increase in membership, however much of that can be tied to immigration which was a significant demographic factor throughout Canada in the post-War world. Europe had been shattered by the Second World War. In the 1940s and 1950s, the United Kingdom itself was suffering heavily with rationing continuing for several years after the end of the war. Many war brides, who had met their husbands in the service during the war, returned to Canada with them. They started families and as their baby boomer children were born and baptised, they caused an increase in overall membership of the Anglican Church of Canada for the twenty years or so following the war.

When comparing the overall membership numbers to Sunday school enrolment, it’s easy to see the correlation. Growth in the 1950s and 1960s corresponds to young children being brought to church by their parents. As the membership growth trend plateaus and the trend enters into decline you see a decline in new enrolments in Sunday school, which corresponds to the overall demographic trends in Canada at the time. There was a post-War population boom that flattened out and declined by the late 1960s and beyond.

That trend explains events surrounding the boom, however it doesn’t tell the whole story of the Anglican Church of Canada. The trend continues towards decline, and outside of the boom in the 1960s, the number of children being baptised, confirmed and attending Sunday school continues to decline while the number of births stabilises in the 1970s and 1980s and even grows somewhat by the mid-90s before declining again into the 21st century. Interestingly, however, bucking the trend of rapid decline are two statistics. The first is the number of communicants at Easter, a figure which has remained relatively stable despite membership decline and the decline in baptisms. The second is the number of identifiable givers; parishioners who make contributions which can be identified in some way, generally by virtue of a numbered envelope.

There are a number of questions raised regarding the demographic results of this survey. First, if there is a high correlation with overall demographic trends in the 1950s and 1960s, what occurs in the 1970s and 1980s that causes the trend in the Anglican Church to split from the Canadian trend? Why, even if overall membership is declining, are the number of communicants at Easter remaining relatively stable? Similarly, what is the cause for the number of identifiable givers remaining stable, and does it suggest the possibility of an impending financial struggle if these identifiable givers are from an age cohort which is about to die? Finally, how does the experience of the Anglican Church of Canada compare with other Christians in Canada, and thus to what degree are these trends reflective of overall trends with respect to Christianity or religion as opposed to something specific to the Anglican Church of Canada?

Many people have attempted to answer these questions, and provide many different, often conflicting, reasons. Based on this demographic report, there can be some broad generalizations taken, the first of which is that the status of religion in Canada has changed generationally. When you look at the trends not just among Anglicanism, but among all religions in Canada, there is a clear shift. In Quebec, for instance, the Quiet Revolution saw the role of the Roman Catholic Church dramatically scaled back in public life. While affiliation with Roman Catholicism remains strong in Quebec according to Statistics Canada, attendance is only a tiny fraction of that, particularly in larger cities, while in some more rural communities, the role of the Church remains much more central. Most Christian churches have observed decline to some degree over the same period. The Roman Catholic Church has not suffered the same, though much of this seems to relate to immigration rates rather than continued births, baptisms and retention of youths into adulthood. Non-Christian religions such as Islam and Hinduism have gone from non-existent to representing several per cent of the population, and notably Islam is a significantly younger religion in terms of adherents. In 2010, the average Muslim was only 28 while the average Anglican was in their mid-forties.

This overall trend suggests a significant decline in the role of religion in Canadian public life, and a broader cultural dissatisfaction with religion as a whole, rather than Christianity in particular, by assimilated Westerners.

For good reason, when examining demographic changes in the church, a significant emphasis is placed on youth, and particularly on Millennials. Millennials is a term that has come to supplant Generation Y to denote the age cohort that follows Generation X. While there are no fixed absolute dates, it generally refers to those born from the mid-1980s to the 2000s, and thus today those who are in their teens and twenties.

They represent a generation that was less likely to have been brought up religiously, though there may have been some cultural attachment to a given church (they were baptised or christened at birth, but attend only for Christmas or Easter, or possibly in some other capacity with their grandparents rather than regularly with their parents).

That taken into account, the largest exposure to Christianity many Millennials receive would therefore be from popular media. Popular media, particularly in Canada where much of our media consumption is American, has two popular depictions of Christianity. First, the hypocritical, fire and brimstone Evangelical Fundamentalist and second the paedophile Roman Catholic priest.

The first challenge in the demographic decline is in overcoming preconceived notions of Church and being inviting towards Millennials.

Even among those who are brought up in faith, there is a greater tendency to leave the Church in the teenage years or adulthood. Pew Research has done a number of polls in the United States which show significantly higher scepticism towards religion in the United States among young people compared to previous generations. Scepticism of this sort can easily overcome poor theology, or even simple questions to which priests or youth leaders are ill-equipped to answer.

The second challenge therefore is overcoming the theology gap. In a society in which we are all bombarded with secularism and marketing half-truths, it requires a solid theology and a clear catechetical strategy to ensure that theology is transmitted to youth.

Contained within these two challenges are countless ways in which the Church and commentators have identified issues and proposed solutions to demographic decline. From the desire to be more modern or trendy, to changing theological demands in order to be responsive to modern sensibilities, to changing Church architecture.

The next few weeks will further explore some of these issues and some possible ways forward.